Monte Carlo methods in finance | Mathematical finance

Profit at risk

Profit-at-Risk (PaR) is a risk management quantity most often used for electricity portfolios that contain some mixture of generation assets, trading contracts and end-user consumption. It is used to provide a measure of the downside risk to profitability of a portfolio of physical and financial assets, analysed by time periods in which the energy is delivered. For example, the expected profitability and associated downside risk (PaR) might be calculated and monitored for each of the forward looking 24 months. The measure considers both price risk and volume risk (e.g. due to uncertainty in electricity generation volumes or consumer demand). Mathematically, the PaR is the quantile of the profit distribution of a portfolio. Since weather related volume risk drivers can be represented in the form of historical weather records over many years, a Monte-Carlo simulation approach is often used. (Wikipedia).

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From playlist Value at Risk (VaR): Introduction

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From playlist Value at Risk (VaR): Introduction

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From playlist MIT 15.031J Energy Decisions, Markets, Policies, Spring 2012

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Related pages

Risk management | Margin at risk | Liquidity at risk | Value at risk