Statistical principles | Bayesian statistics
Cromwell's rule, named by statistician Dennis Lindley, states that the use of prior probabilities of 1 ("the event will definitely occur") or 0 ("the event will definitely not occur") should be avoided, except when applied to statements that are logically true or false, such as 2+2 equaling 4 or 5. The reference is to Oliver Cromwell, who wrote to the General Assembly of the Church of Scotland on 3 August 1650, shortly before the Battle of Dunbar, including a phrase that has become well known and frequently quoted: I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible that you may be mistaken. As Lindley puts it, assigning a probability should "leave a little probability for the moon being made of green cheese; it can be as small as 1 in a million, but have it there since otherwise an army of astronauts returning with samples of the said cheese will leave you unmoved." Similarly, in assessing the likelihood that tossing a coin will result in either a head or a tail facing upwards, there is a possibility, albeit remote, that the coin will land on its edge and remain in that position. If the prior probability assigned to a hypothesis is 0 or 1, then, by Bayes' theorem, the posterior probability (probability of the hypothesis, given the evidence) is forced to be 0 or 1 as well; no evidence, no matter how strong, could have any influence. A strengthened version of Cromwell's rule, applying also to statements of arithmetic and logic, alters the first rule of probability, or the convexity rule, 0 ≤ Pr(A) ≤ 1, to 0 < Pr(A) < 1. (Wikipedia).
Who Were the Mongols? | Genghis Khan and The History of the Mongol Empire
Hear the story of one of the most violent empires that the world has ever seen—the Mongol Empire—beginning with Genghis (Chinggis) Khan, who claimed a mandate from heaven to rule the world. The rest is a story filled with murder, destruction, and the ultimate unification of Eurasia. This
From playlist Ancient History
21. Regicide and Republic, 1647-1660
Early Modern England: Politics, Religion, and Society under the Tudors and Stuarts (HIST 251) In this lecture Professor Wrightson considers the events leading to the execution of Charles I in 1649, and the republican regimes of 1649-60 (the Commonwealth and the Protectorate), with parti
From playlist Early Modern England with Keith E. Wrightson
The Roman Empire. Or Republic. Or...Which Was It?: Crash Course World History #10
In which John Green explores exactly when Rome went from being the Roman Republic to the Roman Empire. Here's a hint: it had something to do with Julius Caesar, but maybe less than you think. Find out how Caesar came to rule the empire, what led to him getting stabbed 23 times on the floor
From playlist World History
Africa: Zulu Empire - Diamonds in South Africa - Extra History - #3
Support us on Patreon! http://bit.ly/EHPatreon Europe had a presence in South Africa dating back to 1652, but the colonies and the native tribes really began to clash in the 1800s. The conquest of the Netherlands by Napoleon had left the Dutch colonists in a state of limbo, with the Briti
From playlist Extra History: Zulu Empire
Ten Minute English and British History #20 - The English Civil War
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Tenminhistory Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/user?u=4973164 Special Thanks to the following Patrons for their support on Patreon: Franco La Bruna Chris Fatta Richard Wolfe Joshua James Baker Mitchell Wildoer Mason Cox William Foster Thomas Mitchell Perry Gag
From playlist English and British History
Africa: Zulu Empire - Last Stands and Changing Fortunes - Extra History - #4
Support us on Patreon! http://bit.ly/EHPatreon BONUS! Learn about the Boer Wars and what happened in South Africa during World War I thanks to our friends at the Great War Channel! http://bit.ly/1HQxP9x Lord Chelmsford, the British officer who commanded during the Anglo-Zulu War, vastly
From playlist Extra History: Zulu Empire
Kaiser Wilhelm II - The Last German Emperor I WHO DID WHAT IN WW1?
Kaiser Wilhelm II (1859-1941), Germany's last emperor, was born in Potsdam in 1859, the son of Frederick III. and Victoria, daughter of Queen Victoria. Wilhelm became emperor of Germany in 1888 following the death of Frederick II. During his rule, Germany's relations with Britain, France a
From playlist Who Did What In WW1?
Centurion vs Cromwell - Korea 1951
In the Centurion tank's first combat debut, in Korea, it ended up going up against another British tank, the venerable Cromwell! Find out how this peculiar situation arose in the winter of 1951. Dr. Mark Felton is a well-known British historian, the author of 22 non-fiction books, includi
From playlist The Cold War 1945-91
Explained: The strange journey of Oliver Cromwell's Head
Weird title and subject, but bear with me. This is going to need some explaining... (Oh and sorry for the 14+ day wait, am currently doing my exams and put more effort into this than any other video ever. Hurray for progression!) Subscribe ➤ https://www.youtube.com/subscription_center?ad
From playlist Explained: The Series (2015 - 2017)
Famous Remains: The Story of Three Cadavers
The strange story of what happened to three famous people, Oliver Cromwell, Catherine Parr and George 'Big Nose' Parrot, after they had shuffled off their mortal coil, illustrates our convoluted history of, and reaction to, mortal remains. This is original content based on research by The
From playlist Wyoming
English Civil War: Crash Course European History #14
The English Civil War. We'll talk about England after Elizabeth, in which things didn't go that smoothly. We'll talk about James I, Charles I, Oliver Cromwell, Charles II, and James II, all of whom ruled England, (and tried to rule all of Britain and Ireland) with varying degrees of succes
From playlist European History
20. Constitutional Revolution and Civil War, 1640-1646
Early Modern England: Politics, Religion, and Society under the Tudors and Stuarts (HIST 251) Professor Wrightson begins his examination of the major events of the English Civil Wars which culminated ultimately with the defeat of the royalist forces and the execution of King Charles I i
From playlist Early Modern England with Keith E. Wrightson
What Made Fred West a Notorious Serial Killer? (Crime Documentary) | Born To Kill | Real Stories
What Made Fred West a Notorious Serial Killer? (Crime Documentary) | Born To Kill | Real Stories What makes a serial killer? This series takes an in-depth look at notorious murderers from around the world. this episode follows Fred West and his wife, Rose West, Want to watch more full-l
From playlist Real Stories: Serial Killers
Brief History of the Royal Family
The Royal Family from 1066 until today. Support the videos: https://www.patreon.com/cgpgrey Research help from: Dr. Carolyn Harris, University of Toronto School of Continuing Studies, author of "Magna Carta and Its Gifts to Canada" http://www.amazon.com/Magna-Carta-Its-Gifts-Canada-eb
From playlist Essential viewing
Ten Minute English and British History #04 -Alfred the Great and the Rise of Wessex
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Tenminhistory Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/user?u=4973164 This episode follows the end of the Mercian Supremacy and follows the achievements of Alfred the Great of Wessex. Most of the focus is on Alfred's conflict with the Vikings and his reforms at home w
From playlist English and British History
8. Reformation and Division, 1530-1558
Early Modern England: Politics, Religion, and Society under the Tudors and Stuarts (HIST 251) Professor Wrightson examines the various stages of the reformation in England, beginning with the legislative, as opposed to doctrinal, reformation begun by Henry VIII in a quest to settle the
From playlist Early Modern England with Keith E. Wrightson
22. An Unsettled Settlement: The Restoration Era, 1660-1688
Early Modern England: Politics, Religion, and Society under the Tudors and Stuarts (HIST 251) In this lecture Professor Wrightson discusses the Restoration settlement of 1660 and the reigns of Charles II and James II. He highlights the manner in which tensions between the crown and the
From playlist Early Modern England with Keith E. Wrightson
Get the best deals while shopping online ▸ http://joinhoney.com/oversimplified Honey is FREE and finds coupons with the click of a button. Thanks Honey for sponsoring! For every OverSimplified face mask you purchase, Crowdmade will donate a mask to a medical worker for a limited time: htt
From playlist OverSimplified History