Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a systematic and comprehensive methodology to evaluate risks associated with a complex engineered technological entity (such as an airliner or a nuclear power plant) or the effects of stressors on the environment (probabilistic environmental risk assessment, or PERA). Risk in a PRA is defined as a feasible detrimental outcome of an activity or action. In a PRA, risk is characterized by two quantities: 1. * the magnitude (severity) of the possible adverse consequence(s), and 2. * the likelihood (probability) of occurrence of each consequence. Consequences are expressed numerically (e.g., the number of people potentially hurt or killed) and their likelihoods of occurrence are expressed as probabilities or frequencies (i.e., the number of occurrences or the probability of occurrence per unit time). The total risk is the expected loss: the sum of the products of the consequences multiplied by their probabilities. The spectrum of risks across classes of events are also of concern, and are usually controlled in licensing processes – it would be of concern if rare but high consequence events were found to dominate the overall risk, particularly as these risk assessments are very sensitive to assumptions (how rare is a high consequence event?). Probabilistic risk assessment usually answers three basic questions: 1. * What can go wrong with the studied technological entity or stressor, or what are the initiators or initiating events (undesirable starting events) that lead to adverse consequence(s)? 2. * What and how severe are the potential detriments, or the adverse consequences that the technological entity (or the ecological system in the case of a PERA) may be eventually subjected to as a result of the occurrence of the initiator? 3. * How likely to occur are these undesirable consequences, or what are their probabilities or frequencies? Two common methods of answering this last question are event tree analysis and fault tree analysis – for explanations of these, see safety engineering. In addition to the above methods, PRA studies require special but often very important analysis tools like human reliability analysis (HRA) and common-cause-failure analysis (CCF). HRA deals with methods for modeling human error while CCF deals with methods for evaluating the effect of inter-system and intra-system dependencies which tend to cause simultaneous failures and thus significant increase in overall risk. (Wikipedia).
Risk Assessment: Likelihood Determination
http://trustedci.org/ Determining Likelihood of a threat as part of a cyber risk assessment.
From playlist Center for Applied Cybersecurity Research (CACR)
QRM L1-1: The Definition of Risk
Welcome to Quantitative Risk Management (QRM). In this first class, we define what risk if for us. We will discuss the basic characteristics of risk, underlining some important facts, like its subjectivity, and the impossibility of separating payoffs and probabilities. Understanding the d
From playlist Quantitative Risk Management
Probabilistic model 5: summary of assumptions
[http://bit.ly/BM-25] The summary of 7 assumptions made in the probabilistic model of IR, and why really need to make them. What assumptions can we relax?
From playlist Probabilistic Model of IR
What is Value at Risk? VaR and Risk Management
In todays video we learn about Value at Risk (VaR) and how is it calculated? Buy The Book Here: https://amzn.to/37HIdEB Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle What Is Value at Risk (VaR)? Value at risk (VaR) is a calculation that aims to quantify the level of
From playlist Risk Management
Risk-neutral probabilities (FRM T5-07)
One of the harder ideas in fixed income is risk-neutral probabilities. In this video, I'd like to specifically illustrate, and define, what we mean by risk-neutral probabilities. I will do this in three steps. The first one is just a simple example of a coin toss, where my objective is to
From playlist Market Risk (FRM Topic 5)
Conditional Value at Risk and Stress Testing in Financial Risk Management
I this weeks class we learn about Conditional Value at Risk and Stress Testing. These classes are all based on the book Trading and Pricing Financial Derivatives, available on Amazon at this link. https://amzn.to/2WIoAL0 Check out our website http://www.onfinance.org/ Follow Patrick on t
From playlist Risk Management
CERIAS Security: Quantitative Risk Assessment of Software Security and Privacy 6/6
Clip 6/6 Speaker: Mehmet Sahinoglu · Auburn University at Montgomery, AL The need for information security is undeniable and self-evident. The pervasiveness of this critical topic requires primarily risk assessment and management through quantitative means. To conduct an assessment; repea
From playlist The CERIAS Security Seminars 2009
What is a conditional probability?
An introduction to the concept of conditional probabilities via a simple 2 dimensional discrete example. If you are interested in seeing more of the material, arranged into a playlist, please visit: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLFDbGp5YzjqXQ4oE4w9GVWdiokWB9gEpm For more inform
From playlist Bayesian statistics: a comprehensive course
Safety-critical AI Applications | Spectral-normalized Neural Gaussian Process SNGP
3 Questions for my eXplainable AI system (XAI): Is it consistent, predictable and explanatory? In safety-critical AI applications, the deep classifier should be aware of its own limitations and when it should hand control over to the human experts - using a technique called Spectral-nor
From playlist Explainable AI (XAI) and Decision Intelligence (DI). Performance on Vision.
Uncertainty, Decision and Climate Change
Geoff Heal, Columbia University, delivers a lecture entitled, "Uncertainty, Decision and Climate Change", at YCEI's conference, "Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Conversation with Climate Scientists and Economists".
From playlist Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Conversation with Climate Scientists and Economists
Risk Management Lesson 5A: Value at Risk
In this first part of Lesson 5, we discuss Value-at-Risk (VaR). Topics: - Definition of VaR - Loss distribution and confidence level - The normal VaR
From playlist Risk Management
What is Control Risk? | What is Monitor Risk?
This video talks about: Agenda→Purpose and objective of the monitor and control risk process, critical success factors for the monitor and control risk process tools and techniques for the monitor and control risk process Documenting the results of the monitor and control risk process Clic
From playlist PMI-RMP® Training Videos [2022 Updated]
Quantitative Risk Analysis | What Is Quantitative Risk Analysis? | PMI-RMP Course | Simplilearn
This video on Quantitative Risk Analysis will help you understand how to perform Quantitative RIsk Analysis, List the tools and Techniques required for the analysis.This Video will also help you in EMV analysis and Probability Distribution. #QuantitativeRiskAnalysis #WhatIsQuantitativeRis
From playlist PMI-RMP® Training Videos [2022 Updated]
Quantitative Risk Analysis | What Is Quantitative Risk Analysis? | PMI-RMP Course | Simplilearn
This video on Quantitative Risk Analysis will help you understand how to perform Quantitative RIsk Analysis, List the tools and Techniques required for the analysis. This Video will also help you in EMV analysis and Probability Distribution. 🔥Free Project Management Course: https://www.sim
From playlist PMI-RMP® Training Videos [2022 Updated]
Qualitative And Quantitative Risk Analysis Explained | Risk Analysis Techniques | Simplilearn
In this video on Qualitative and Quantitative Risk Analysis, we'll go into detail about how each of them work, how it's performed and the tools and techniques required to document it. 🔥Explore Our Free Courses With Completion Certificate by SkillUp: https://www.simplilearn.com/skillup-free
From playlist PMI-RMP® Training Videos [2022 Updated]
Alexis Battle: "Methods for analysis of rare genetic variants"
Computational Genomics Winter Institute 2018 "Methods for analysis of rare genetic variants" Alexis Battle, Johns Hopkins University Institute for Pure and Applied Mathematics, UCLA February 28, 2018 For more information: http://computationalgenomics.bioinformatics.ucla.edu/programs/201
From playlist Computational Genomics Winter Institute 2018
IMT4307 - Serious Games - Introduction (Part 2)
Introduction to Serious Games
From playlist 2020 - IMT4307 - Serious Games
CERIAS Security: Quantitative Risk Assessment of Software Security and Privacy 1/6
Clip 1/6 Speaker: Mehmet Sahinoglu · Auburn University at Montgomery, AL The need for information security is undeniable and self-evident. The pervasiveness of this critical topic requires primarily risk assessment and management through quantitative means. To conduct an assessment; repea
From playlist The CERIAS Security Seminars 2009
QRM L1-2: The dimensions of risk and friends
Welcome to Quantitative Risk Management (QRM). In this second video, we analyse the dimensions of risk. Risk is in fact an object that we need to consider from different points of view, and that sometimes we cannot even quantify. We will also discuss the importance of statistical thinking
From playlist Quantitative Risk Management