Decision theory | Probability interpretations
In decision theory, a pignistic probability is a probability that a rational person will assign to an option when required to make a decision. A person may have, at one level certain beliefs or a lack of knowledge, or uncertainty, about the options and their actual likelihoods. However, when it is necessary to make a decision (such as deciding whether to place a bet), the behaviour of the rational person would suggest that the person has assigned a set of regular probabilities to the options. These are the pignistic probabilities. The term was coined by , and stems from the Latin pignus, a bet. He contrasts the pignistic level, where one might take action, with the credal level, where one interprets the state of the world: The transferable belief model is based on the assumption that beliefs manifest themselves at two mental levels: the ‘credal’ level where beliefs are entertained and the ‘pignistic’ level where beliefs are used to make decisions (from ‘credo’ I believe and ‘pignus’ a bet, both in Latin). Usually these two levels are not distinguished and probability functions are used to quantify beliefs at both levels. The justification for the use of probability functions is usually linked to “rational” behavior to be held by an ideal agent involved in some decision contexts. A pignistic probability transform will calculate these pignistic probabilities from a structure that describes belief structures. (Wikipedia).
Probability: We define geometric random variables, and find the mean, variance, and moment generating function of such. The key tools are the geometric power series and its derivatives.
From playlist Probability
defining and calculating geometric probability
From playlist Unit 6 Probability B: Random Variables & Binomial Probability & Counting Techniques
Basketball binomial distribution More free lessons at: http://www.khanacademy.org/video?v=vKNpQ_KTXvE
From playlist Statistics
Prob & Stats - Random Variable & Prob Distribution (1 of 53) Random Variable
Visit http://ilectureonline.com for more math and science lectures! In this video I will define and gives an example of what is a random variable. Next video in series: http://youtu.be/aEB07VIIfKs
From playlist iLecturesOnline: Probability & Stats 2: Random Variable & Probability Distribution
How to find the probability of mutually exclusive event with a die
👉 Learn how to find the probability of mutually exclusive events. Two events are said to be mutually exclusive when the two events cannot occur at the same time. For instance, when you throw a coin the event that a head appears and the event that a tail appears are mutually exclusive becau
From playlist Probability of Mutually Exclusive Events
UNIFORM Probability Distribution for Discrete Random Variables (9-5)
Uniform Probability Distribution: (i.e., a rectangular distribution) is a probability distribution involving one random variable with a constant probability. Each potential outcome is equally likely, such as flipping coin and getting heads is always 50/50. On Chaos Night, Dante experiment
From playlist Discrete Probability Distributions in Statistics (WK 9 - QBA 237)
The Binomial Distribution / Binomial Probability Function
Thanks to all of you who support me on Patreon. You da real mvps! $1 per month helps!! :) https://www.patreon.com/patrickjmt !! The Binomial Distribution / Binomial Probability Function. In this video, I discuss what a binomial experiment is, discuss the formula for finding the probabi
From playlist All Videos - Part 8
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Today, we derive the formula to find the expected value or the mean of a discrete random variable which follows the binomial probability distribution.
From playlist Probability
From playlist STAT 501
Level 1 Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA ®): Conditional, unconditional and joint probabilities
Session 2, Reading 9 (Part 1): In terms of this CFA playlist, we are still in the early quantitative methods or the foundations of quantitative methods. In the previous video, I reviewed some basic statistical concepts and now I follow that up with a review of some basic or foundational pr
From playlist Level 1 Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA ®) Volume 1
And, Or, and Conditional Probability Lesson
This video provides a lesson on "and", "or", and conditional probability. http://mathispower4u.com
From playlist Probability
S1 - Statistics - Probability (4) (Conditional Probability A Given B) Stats AS Maths Edexcel
www.m4ths.com GCSE and A Level Worksheets, videos and helpbooks. Full course help for Foundation and Higher GCSE 9-1 Maths All content created by Steve Blades
From playlist S1 - Statistics - Probability - AS Maths - Edexcel Stats
2b Data Analytics Reboot: Frequentist Probability
Lecture about frequentist probability, including probability concepts and operators such as addition rule, multiplication rule, marginalization, conditional probability, and independence. Follow along with the demonstration workflow in Excel: o. Marginal, conditional and joint probabilit
From playlist Data Analytics and Geostatistics
S1 - Statistics - Probability (5) (Relationships - Independent & Mutually Exclusive) Stats AS
www.m4ths.com GCSE and A Level Worksheets, videos and helpbooks. Full course help for Foundation and Higher GCSE 9-1 Maths All content created by Steve Blades
From playlist S1 - Statistics - Probability - AS Maths - Edexcel Stats
The Law of Total Probability | Probability Theory, Total Probability Rule
What is the law of total probability? Also sometimes called the total probability rule, we go over this tremendously useful law in today’s full video math lesson! Imagine we have a sample space that can be partitioned into three events B1, B2, and B3. And say we have another event in this
From playlist Probability Theory
2. Conditioning and Bayes' Rule
MIT 6.041 Probabilistic Systems Analysis and Applied Probability, Fall 2010 View the complete course: http://ocw.mit.edu/6-041F10 Instructor: John Tsitsiklis License: Creative Commons BY-NC-SA More information at http://ocw.mit.edu/terms More courses at http://ocw.mit.edu
From playlist MIT 6.041SC Probabilistic Systems Analysis and Applied Probability, Fall 2013
Uncertainty - Lecture 2 - CS50's Introduction to Artificial Intelligence with Python 2020
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From playlist CS50's Introduction to Artificial Intelligence with Python 2020
Excel 2013 Statistical Analysis #28: Multiplication Law of Probability AND Events (16 Examples)
Download Excel file: https://people.highline.edu/mgirvin/AllClasses/210Excel2013/Ch04/Excel2013StatisticsChapter04.xlsm Download pdf notes file: https://people.highline.edu/mgirvin/AllClasses/210Excel2013/Ch04/Ch04PDFBusn210.pdf Topics in this video: 1. (00:25) Conditional Probability (3 E
From playlist Excel for Statistical Analysis in Business & Economics Free Course at YouTube (75 Videos)
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From playlist Probability Distributions
03 Spatial Data Analytics: Frequentist Probability
Lecture on the basics of frequentist probability for subsurface / spatial modeling.
From playlist Spatial Data Analytics and Modeling