Illusion of validity is a cognitive bias in which a person overestimates their ability to interpret and predict accurately the outcome when analyzing a set of data, in particular when the data analyzed show a very consistent pattern—that is, when the data "tell" a coherent story. This effect persists even when the person is aware of all the factors that limit the accuracy of their predictions, that is when the data and/or methods used to judge them lead to highly fallible predictions. Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky explain the illusion as follows: "people often predict by selecting the output...that is most representative of the input....The confidence they have in their prediction depends primarily on the degree of representativeness...with little or no regard for the factors that limit predictive accuracy. Thus, people express great confidence in the prediction that a person is a librarian when given a description of his personality which matches the stereotype of librarians, even if the description is scanty, unreliable, or outdated. The unwarranted confidence which is produced by a good fit between the predicted outcome and the input information may be called the illusion of validity." In one study, for example, subjects reported higher confidence in a prediction of the final grade point average of a student after seeing a first-year record of consistent B's than a first-year record of an even number of A's and C's. Consistent patterns may be observed when input variables are highly redundant or correlated, which may increase subjective confidence. However, a number of highly correlated inputs should not increase confidence much more than only one of the inputs; instead higher confidence should be merited when a number of highly independent inputs show a consistent pattern. (Wikipedia).
Can you guess how this illusion was done?
From playlist Funny Videos, Parodies, Odds and ends!
brusspup t-shirts! http://brusspup.spreadshirt.com/ I'd like to credit Kokichi Sugihara for the concept of this design. This illusion is a good workout for your brain. Definition of "illusion": something that deceives by producing a false or misleading impression of reality. T
From playlist Amazing Illusions!
The Illusion of Self - https://aperture.gg/theillusionofself Check out Wondrium today and start your FREE trial at http://ow.ly/CENP30rNPZA Merch: https://aperture.gg/merch The truth is, the illusion of self is simply a collection of our memories of the past, desires in the present, and p
From playlist Philosophy & Psychology ðŸ§
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From playlist Science Unplugged: Time
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Indian Philosophy by Dr. Satya Sundar Sethy, Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, IIT Madras. For more details on NPTEL visit http://nptel.iitm.ac.in
From playlist IIT Madras: Introduction to Indian Philosophy | CosmoLearning.org Philosophy
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From playlist 01. Fundamentals of Science and Astronomy
Grammar: Illusion or Allusion?
In this video, you’ll learn more about when to use "illusion" and "allusion" correctly in American English. Visit https://www.gcflearnfree.org/grammar/illusion-or-allusion/1/ for our lesson. We hope you enjoy!
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Indian Philosophy by Dr. Satya Sundar Sethy, Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, IIT Madras. For more details on NPTEL visit http://nptel.iitm.ac.in
From playlist IIT Madras: Introduction to Indian Philosophy | CosmoLearning.org Philosophy
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Free will has traditionally been a problem in philosophy. Recently, the battleground of free will has shifted to neuroscience. Now some claim that to solve the problem of free will, we must go far deeper, to the fundamentals of physics, down to subatomic forces and particles. But don't fre
From playlist Closer To Truth - Sean Carroll Interviews
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History of test validity research Task-based vs competency-based assessment: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LCEfIyxoClQ&list=PLTjlULGD9bNJi1NtMfKjr7umeKdQR9DGO&index=18 Test usefulness: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZFeOaYkVzA&list=PLTjlULGD9bNJi1NtMfKjr7umeKdQR9DGO&index=7
From playlist Learn with Experts
Validity, reliability and accuracy explained
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From playlist IIT Madras: Introduction to Indian Philosophy | CosmoLearning.org Philosophy
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There's a child in each of us that longs for the halcyon days of summer; dipping toes in the water off the pier, skipping stones across the pond, hopscotch in the alley with your friends. A child that yearns to run free from the responsibilities and pressures of modern life; that doesn't r
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Patrick McNamara - What Are Altered States of Consciousness?
Altered states of consciousness are non-normal states of mental awareness or experiences. These include dreams, hallucinations, induced mental alterations such as by meditation, alcohol, drugs or disease. What can altered states of consciousness tell us about the essence of consciousness i
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Support Vsauce, your brain, Alzheimer's research, and other YouTube educators by joining THE CURIOSITY BOX: a seasonal delivery of viral science toys made by Vsauce! A portion of all proceeds goes to Alzheimer's research and our Inquisitive Fellowship, a program that gives money and resour
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The Truth is Terrible - Nietzsche's Idea of an Aesthetic Justification for Existence
Brian Leiter discusses the thought of Nietzsche at Davidson College a few years back. The truth is terrible, Nietzsche tells us. There is no God, the universe lacks any ultimate meaning or purpose, and is filled with gratuitous pointless suffering. Our only relief comes with nonexistence u
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From playlist Science Unplugged: Quantum Mechanics
Types of Conformity | Revision for A-Level Psychology
I want to help you achieve the grades you (and I) know you are capable of; these grades are the stepping stone to your future. Even if you don't want to study science or maths further, the grades you get now will open doors in the future. A-Level Maths Courses, FREE revision guide and wor
From playlist WJEC A-Level Psychology Playlist