Credibility theory is a form of statistical inference used to forecast an uncertain future event developed by Thomas Bayes. It is employed to combine multiple estimates into a summary estimate that takes into account information on the accuracy of the initial estimates. This is typically used by actuaries working for insurance companies when determining the premium values. For example, in group health insurance an insurer is interested in calculating the risk premium, , (i.e. the theoretical expected claims amount) for a particular employer in the coming year. The insurer will likely have an estimate of historical overall claims experience, , as well as a more specific estimate for the employer in question, . Assigning a credibility factor, , to the overall claims experience (and the reciprocal to employer experience) allows the insurer to get a more accurate estimate of the risk premium in the following manner: The credibility factor is derived by calculating the maximum likelihood estimate which would minimise the error of estimate. Assuming the variance of and are known quantities taking on the values and respectively, it can be shown that should be equal to: Therefore, the more uncertainty the estimate has, the lower is its credibility. (Wikipedia).
Reliability 1: External reliability and rater reliability and agreement
In this video, I discuss external reliability, inter- and intra-rater reliability, and rater agreement.
From playlist Reliability analysis
The Nature of Causation: The Counterfactual Theory of Causation
In this second lecture in this series on the nature of causation, Marianne Talbot discusses the counterfactual theory of causation. We have causal theories of reference, perception, knowledge, content and numerous other things. If it were to turn out that causation doesn’t exist, we would
From playlist The Nature of Causation
The Nature of Causation: The Regularity Theory
What is causation? In this first lecture in this series on the nature of causation, Marianne Talbot discusses Hume's famous account of causation, which is a version of the so-called regularity theory. We have causal theories of reference, perception, knowledge, content and numerous other
From playlist The Nature of Causation
Philosophy means, in Ancient Greek, the love of wisdom. But the word wisdom can sound very big and forbidding; what does it really mean to be wise? And how might we consciously strive to be a little wiser? If you like our films take a look at our shop (we ship worldwide): http://www.thesch
From playlist SELF
What Is The Uncertainty Principle?
Subscribe to our YouTube Channel for all the latest from World Science U. Visit our Website: http://www.worldscienceu.com/ Like us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/worldscienceu Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/worldscienceu
From playlist Science Unplugged: Quantum Mechanics
The anxiety that we are, in some way, not being ourselves can seem both puzzling and all too familiar. This worry is also an anxiety that has been explored by many of the great philosophers and became in the twentieth century a central theme in existentialism, as the worry that our lives a
From playlist Social & Political Philosophy
Chris Stewart (Pt. 1) - Aesthetic Cognitivism: Overview & Concepts
Free access to Closer to Truth's library of 5,000 videos: http://bit.ly/2UufzC7 Aesthetic Cognitivism is a theory about the value of the arts as sources of understanding—the arts as more than sources of delight, amusement, pleasure, or emotional catharsis (though they can certainly be all
From playlist Aesthetic Cognitivism: Overview & Concepts - CTT Interview Series
Why You Should Never Say "It's Just A Theory"
A portion of our culture distrusts the scientific method, assuming that there are transcendent truths unknowable by science. But nothing is truly out of bounds for science. If it's real, it can be studied, and tested. Perhaps the greatest misunderstanding our culture has about the scientif
From playlist Science for Common Folk
Why science is NOT 'Just a Theory'
Have you ever heard ‘evolution’ dismissed as ‘just a theory’? Is a scientific theory no different to the theory that Elvis is still alive? Jim Al-Khalili puts the record straight. Subscribe for regular science videos: http://bit.ly/RiSubscRibe There’s an important difference between a sci
From playlist Ri Animations
Mod-01 Lec-36 The social construction of knowledge: Adaptation and Revolution
History of Economic Theory by Dr. Shivakumar, Department of Humanities and Social Sciences IIT Madras, For more details on NPTEL visit http://nptel.iitm.ac.in
From playlist IIT Madras: History of Economic Theory | CosmoLearning.org Economics
CGSR Seminar Series | Russian Nuclear Strategy and Conventional Inferiority
Abstract: Contemporary debates on Russian nuclear strategy focus on making sense of Russia’s nuclear capabilities, signaling and nuclear declarations. This article, recently awarded the Journal of Strategic Studies 2020 Amos Perlmutter Prize, argues that understanding how nuclear capabili
From playlist Center for Global Security Research
Veronika Ročková: Bayesian Spatial Adaptation
CIRM VIRTUAL EVENT Recorded during the meeting "Mathematical Methods of Modern Statistics 2" the June 09, 2020 by the Centre International de Rencontres Mathématiques (Marseille, France) Filmmaker: Guillaume Hennenfent Find this video and other talks given by worldwide mathematicians
From playlist Virtual Conference
Evolutionary game theory by Matteo Marsili
Winter School on Quantitative Systems Biology DATE:04 December 2017 to 22 December 2017 VENUE:Ramanujan Lecture Hall, ICTS, Bengaluru The International Centre for Theoretical Sciences (ICTS) and the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), are organizing a Winter S
From playlist Winter School on Quantitative Systems Biology
Bayesian inference and convex geometry: theory, methods, (...) - Pereyra - Workshop 2 - CEB T1 2019
Marcelo Pereyra (Heriot-Watt Univ.) / 14.03.2019 Bayesian inference and convex geometry: theory, methods, and algorithms. This talk summarises some new developments in theory, methods, and algorithms for performing Bayesian inference in high-dimensional models that are log-concave, with
From playlist 2019 - T1 - The Mathematics of Imaging
The scientific process: GCSE revision
GCSE level covering: Scientific process, hypothesis, experiment, evidence, sample, repeatable, reproducible, valid, bias, its use, unanswered questions, investigation, prove or disprove, control variables, trial runs, hazardous, data, reliable, accurate, precise, error, and normally, organ
From playlist GCSE Physics Revision
Honor and International Violence - Barry O'Neill
Leon Levy Lecture Institute for Advanced Study April 30, 2009 Barry O'Neill, Leon Levy Foundation Member, School of Social Science. Many of the world’s societies function by codes of honor. Violence between ethnic groups or countries often follows the rules of honor among individuals, in
From playlist Leon Levy Lecture
Ukraine Whistleblower, Transcript, Complaint & Impeachment -- Real Law Review
⭐️ Get my videos early & ad free (plus my exclusives!) only on Nebula. Save $10 per year! https://legaleagle.link/getnebula ⭐️ A CIA whistleblower alleges President Trump abused his office to get dirt on his main political rival. Legal Eagles get 2 months of unlimited learning on Skills
From playlist Law Review News!
CGSR Seminar Series | Alliances and Nuclear Risk: Evidence from the Cold War, Implications for Today
In this talk from June 1, 2021, Caitlin Talmadge, an associate professor at Georgetown University, and Brendan Green, an associate professor at the University of Cincinnati, discuss whether, when, and how great power alliance commitments to weaker states can lead to peacetime military poli
From playlist Center for Global Security Research
What is a hypothesis test? The meaning of the null and alternate hypothesis, with examples. Overview of test statistics and confidence levels.
From playlist Hypothesis Tests and Critical Values
Bayesian Statistics: An Introduction
See all my videos here: http://www.zstatistics.com/videos/ 0:00 Introduction 2:25 Frequentist vs Bayesian 5:55 Bayes Theorum 10:45 Visual Example 15:05 Bayesian Inference for a Normal Mean 24:30 Conjugate priors 32:55 Credible Intervals
From playlist Statistical Inference (7 videos)