Probability assessment

Absolute probability judgement

Absolute probability judgement is a technique used in the field of human reliability assessment (HRA), for the purposes of evaluating the probability of a human error occurring throughout the completion of a specific task. From such analyses measures can then be taken to reduce the likelihood of errors occurring within a system and therefore lead to an improvement in the overall levels of safety. There exist three primary reasons for conducting an HRA; error identification, error quantification and error reduction. As there exist a number of techniques used for such purposes, they can be split into one of two classifications; first generation techniques and second generation techniques. First generation techniques work on the basis of the simple dichotomy of 'fits/doesn't fit' in the matching of the error situation in context with related error identification and quantification and second generation techniques are more theory based in their assessment and quantification of errors. 'HRA techniques have been utilised in a range of industries including healthcare, engineering, nuclear, transportation and business sector; each technique has varying uses within different disciplines. Absolute probability judgement, which is also known as direct numerical estimation, is based on the quantification of human error probabilities (HEPs). It is grounded on the premise that people cannot recall or are unable to estimate with certainty, the probability of a given event occurring. Expert judgement is typically desirable for utilisation in the technique when there is little or no data with which to calculate HEPs, or when the data is unsuitable or difficult to understand. In theory, qualitative knowledge built through the experts' experience can be translated into quantitative data such as HEPs. Required of the experts is a good level of both substantive experience (i.e. the expert must have a suitable level of knowledge of the problem domain) and normative experience (i.e. it must be possible for the expert, perhaps with the aid of a facilitator, to translate this knowledge explicitly into probabilities). If experts possess the required substantive knowledge but lack knowledge which is normative in nature, the experts may be trained or assisted in ensuring that the knowledge and expertise requiring to be captured is translated into the correct probabilities i.e. to ensure that it is an accurate representation of the experts' judgements. (Wikipedia).

Video thumbnail

How to evaluate the limit of a function by observing its graph

👉 Learn how to evaluate the limit of an absolute value function. The limit of a function as the input variable of the function tends to a number/value is the number/value which the function approaches at that time. The absolute value function is a function which only takes the positive val

From playlist Evaluate Limits of Absolute Value

Video thumbnail

Learn to evaluate the limit of the absolute value function

👉 Learn how to evaluate the limit of an absolute value function. The limit of a function as the input variable of the function tends to a number/value is the number/value which the function approaches at that time. The absolute value function is a function which only takes the positive val

From playlist Evaluate Limits of Absolute Value

Video thumbnail

Evaluate the limit for a value of a function

👉 Learn how to evaluate the limit of an absolute value function. The limit of a function as the input variable of the function tends to a number/value is the number/value which the function approaches at that time. The absolute value function is a function which only takes the positive val

From playlist Evaluate Limits of Absolute Value

Video thumbnail

Learn how to evaluate left and right hand limits of a function

👉 Learn how to evaluate the limit of an absolute value function. The limit of a function as the input variable of the function tends to a number/value is the number/value which the function approaches at that time. The absolute value function is a function which only takes the positive val

From playlist Evaluate Limits of Absolute Value

Video thumbnail

Evaluate the left and right hand limit by graphing the function

👉 Learn how to evaluate the limit of an absolute value function. The limit of a function as the input variable of the function tends to a number/value is the number/value which the function approaches at that time. The absolute value function is a function which only takes the positive val

From playlist Evaluate Limits of Absolute Value

Video thumbnail

Using parent graphs to understand the left and right hand limits

👉 Learn how to evaluate the limit of an absolute value function. The limit of a function as the input variable of the function tends to a number/value is the number/value which the function approaches at that time. The absolute value function is a function which only takes the positive val

From playlist Evaluate Limits of Absolute Value

Video thumbnail

Evaluate the limit of an absolute value function by direct substitution

👉 Learn how to evaluate the limit of an absolute value function. The limit of a function as the input variable of the function tends to a number/value is the number/value which the function approaches at that time. The absolute value function is a function which only takes the positive val

From playlist Evaluate Limits of Absolute Value

Video thumbnail

Math 101 091117 Introduction to Analysis 05 Absolute Value

Absolute value: definition. Notion of distance. Properties of the absolute value: proofs. Triangle inequality

From playlist Course 6: Introduction to Analysis (Fall 2017)

Video thumbnail

Ex: Determine Conditional Probability from a Table

This video provides two examples of how to determine conditional probability using information given in a table.

From playlist Probability

Video thumbnail

Last Judgment Tympanum, Cathedral of St. Lazare, Autun

Last Judgment Tympanum, Central Portal on West facade of the Cathedral of St. Lazare, Autun, c. 1130-46. Created by Beth Harris and Steven Zucker.

From playlist Art of Medieval Europe | Art History | Khan Academy

Video thumbnail

Crash Course IR - Evaluation

In this lecture we look at how we evaluate ranked retrieval results with common IR metrics. Slides & transcripts are available at: https://github.com/sebastian-hofstaetter/teaching 📖 Check out Youtube's CC - we added our high quality (human corrected) transcripts here as well. Slide Tim

From playlist Advanced Information Retrieval 2021 - TU Wien

Video thumbnail

How To Unf*ck Your Life

Free week of premium, Simple Habit:- on your mobile browser, go to http://www.simplehabit.com/charisma Thank you to Zeino for the amazing animation! www.youtube.com/zeino 5 Reasons Relationships Go Bad Discover The 4 Emotions You Need To Make a Killer First Impression: http://bit.ly/2K7T

From playlist Best Charisma on Command Videos — August

Video thumbnail

Crash Course IR - Test Collections

In this lecture we get to know existing IR test collections, look at how to create your own, and survey potential biases & their effect in the data. Slides & transcripts are available at: https://github.com/sebastian-hofstaetter/teaching 📖 Check out Youtube's CC - we added our high qualit

From playlist Advanced Information Retrieval 2021 - TU Wien

Video thumbnail

The Psychology of Morality

What does it mean to do something good or bad? How do we know what's good or bad? How do we even know that this is a reasonable question to ask? Psychologists have been studying morality for a long time, examining how our sense of morality develops over time, and the ways that we arrive at

From playlist Psychology

Video thumbnail

ARTH 2020/4037 Michelangelo 1 (High Renaissance)

Art Historian Dr. Vida Hull ETSU Online Programs - http://www.etsu.edu/online Italian Renaissance Art History Survey II Art History Survey

From playlist ETSU: ARTH 4037 Italian Renaissance | CosmoLearning.org Art

Video thumbnail

DevOpsDays Seattle 2016 - Understanding Cognitive Bias Found In Judgement & Choice by Jason Hand

Understanding Cognitive Bias Found In Judgement & Choice by Jason Hand There are distinctive patterns in the errors that all of us make. Systematic mistakes known as biases, along with impressions and thoughts, form within our conscious experience. This occurs naturally without us knowin

From playlist DevOpsDays Seattle 2016

Video thumbnail

DevOpsDays SEA 2016 - Understanding Cognitive Bias Found In Judgement & Choice By Jason Hand

Understanding Cognitive Bias Found In Judgement & Choice By Jason Hand There are distinctive patterns in the errors that all of us make. Systematic mistakes known as biases, along with impressions and thoughts, form within our conscious experience. This occurs naturally without us knowing

From playlist DevOpsDays Seattle 2016

Video thumbnail

[News] The NeurIPS Broader Impact Statement

For the first time, all authors submitting to the NeurIPS conference are forced to write a statement about the broader impact of their research on society. The messaging around this and how exactly this can influence the paper acceptance process is highly confusing. OUTLINE: 0:00 - Intro

From playlist ML in Society

Video thumbnail

Percent Uncertainty In Measurement

This video tutorial provides a basic introduction into percent uncertainty. It also discusses topics such as estimated uncertainty, absolute uncertainty, and relative uncertainty. This video provides an example explaining how to calculate the percent uncertainty in the volume of the sphe

From playlist New Physics Video Playlist

Video thumbnail

Type Systems I - Vladimir Voevodsky

Vladimir Voevodsky Institute for Advanced Study November 28, 2012 For more videos, visit http://video.ias.edu

From playlist Mathematics

Related pages

Geometric mean | Delphi method | Deadlock | Quantification (science) | Probability